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Budućnost Banovići vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
FT
3 – 1
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
4/15/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 22Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Budućnost Banovići64%
×Draw21%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Banovići
1.94
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.82

Budućnost Banovići creates 137% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 45 away

creates per match

Budućnost Banovići
1.68
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.73

allows per match

Budućnost Banovići
0.92
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
2.20

finishing

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Banovići ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Budućnost Banovići or draw
85%
Budućnost Banovići or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
79%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
36%

Winning margin

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
38%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
86%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
58%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
30%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
56%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
20%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
81%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Banovići at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.68 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.73 + Budućnost Banovići defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Budućnost Banovići scores more
64%
level
21%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
15%

Budućnost Banovići at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Budućnost Banovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budućnost Banovići vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Budućnost Banovići beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banovići.