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Budućnost Banovići vs Goražde — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Goražde
Goražde
5/18/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Budućnost Banovići51%
×Draw26%
Goražde23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Banovići
1.51
Goražde
0.92

Budućnost Banovići creates 64% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 82 away

creates per match

Budućnost Banovići
1.68
Goražde
0.91

allows per match

Budućnost Banovići
0.92
Goražde
1.34

finishing

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par
Goražde+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Banovići ↓

Goražde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Budućnost Banovići or draw
77%
Budućnost Banovići or Goražde
74%
Draw or Goražde
49%

Winning margin

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
26%
Goražde wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
78%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
44%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
19%
Goražde 1+ goals
60%
Goražde 2+ goals
23%
Goražde 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
69%
Goražde (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Banovići at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Goražde away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.68 + Goražde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.51

Goražde attack 0.91 + Budućnost Banovići defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Budućnost Banovići scores more
51%
level
26%
Goražde scores more
23%

Budućnost Banovići at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Budućnost Banovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budućnost Banovići vs Goražde

Budućnost Banovići beat Goražde 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banovići.