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Budućnost Banovići vs Čelik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Čelik
Čelik
4/4/20261st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Budućnost Banovići47%
×Draw26%
Čelik27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Banovići
1.46
Čelik
1.03

Budućnost Banovići creates 42% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 42 away

creates per match

Budućnost Banovići
1.68
Čelik
1.14

allows per match

Budućnost Banovići
0.92
Čelik
1.24

finishing

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par
Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Banovići ↓

Čelik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Budućnost Banovići or draw
73%
Budućnost Banovići or Čelik
74%
Draw or Čelik
53%

Winning margin

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
23%
Čelik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
77%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
43%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
18%
Čelik 1+ goals
64%
Čelik 2+ goals
28%
Čelik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
64%
Čelik (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Banovići at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Čelik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.68 + Čelik defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Čelik attack 1.14 + Budućnost Banovići defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Budućnost Banovići scores more
47%
level
26%
Čelik scores more
27%

Budućnost Banovići at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Budućnost Banovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budućnost Banovići vs Čelik

Čelik beat Budućnost Banovići 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banovići.