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Budućnost Banovići vs Čapljina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
FT
4 – 2
Čapljina
Čapljina
10/24/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Budućnost Banovići58%
×Draw23%
Čapljina19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Banovići
1.82
Čapljina
0.92

Budućnost Banovići creates 98% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 23 away

creates per match

Budućnost Banovići
1.68
Čapljina
0.91

allows per match

Budućnost Banovići
0.92
Čapljina
1.96

finishing

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par
Čapljina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Banovići ↓

Čapljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Budućnost Banovići or draw
81%
Budućnost Banovići or Čapljina
77%
Draw or Čapljina
42%

Winning margin

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
34%
Čapljina wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
84%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
54%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
27%
Čapljina 1+ goals
60%
Čapljina 2+ goals
23%
Čapljina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
76%
Čapljina (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Banovići at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Čapljina away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.68 + Čapljina defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.82

Čapljina attack 0.91 + Budućnost Banovići defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Budućnost Banovići scores more
58%
level
23%
Čapljina scores more
19%

Budućnost Banovići at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Budućnost Banovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budućnost Banovići vs Čapljina

Budućnost Banovići beat Čapljina 4-2 in 1st League - FBiH on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banovići.