Budoni 2–1 Latte Dolce: Result & Stats

Budoni

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Latte Dolce

9/10/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 1Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Budoni37%

×Draw27%

Latte Dolce36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BudoniExpected goals in this matchLatte Dolce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.24

Budoni

1.27

Latte Dolce

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 82 away

0.94

creates per match

1.10

1.38

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Budoni

0.94

Latte Dolce

1.10

allows per match

Budoni

1.38

Latte Dolce

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budoni+0.00on par

Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budoni ↓

Latte Dolce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Budoni or draw

64%

Budoni or Latte Dolce

73%

Draw or Latte Dolce

63%

Winning margin

Budoni wins by 2+

16%

Latte Dolce wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Budoni 1+ goals

72%

Budoni 2+ goals

36%

Budoni 3+ goals

14%

Latte Dolce 1+ goals

71%

Latte Dolce 2+ goals

35%

Latte Dolce 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Budoni (draw refunded)

51%

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budoni at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 47 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budoni attack 0.94 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Budoni defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Budoni scores more

37%

level

27%

Latte Dolce scores more

36%

Budoni at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Budoni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff