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Budoni vs Ischia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Budoni
Budoni
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Ischia
Ischia
10/8/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 5Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Budoni33%
×Draw28%
Ischia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budoni
1.09
Ischia
1.22

Ischia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

Budoni
0.94
Ischia
1.06

allows per match

Budoni
1.38
Ischia
1.24

finishing

Budoni+0.00on par
Ischia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budoni ↓

Ischia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Budoni or draw
61%
Budoni or Ischia
72%
Draw or Ischia
67%

Winning margin

Budoni wins by 2+
13%
Ischia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Budoni 1+ goals
66%
Budoni 2+ goals
30%
Budoni 3+ goals
10%
Ischia 1+ goals
70%
Ischia 2+ goals
34%
Ischia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Budoni (draw refunded)
46%
Ischia (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budoni at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 47 matches

Ischia away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budoni attack 0.94 + Ischia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ischia attack 1.06 + Budoni defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Budoni scores more
33%
level
28%
Ischia scores more
39%

Ischia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ischia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Budoni 0 – 4 Ischia

Ischia beat Budoni 4-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Budoni.