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Budoni vs Cavese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Budoni
Budoni
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Cavese
Cavese
11/19/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Budoni20%
×Draw26%
Cavese54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budoni
0.79
Cavese
1.51

Cavese creates 91% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Budoni
0.94
Cavese
1.65

allows per match

Budoni
1.38
Cavese
0.65

finishing

Budoni+0.00on par
Cavese+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budoni ↓

Cavese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Budoni or draw
46%
Budoni or Cavese
74%
Draw or Cavese
80%

Winning margin

Budoni wins by 2+
6%
Cavese wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Budoni 1+ goals
55%
Budoni 2+ goals
19%
Budoni 3+ goals
5%
Cavese 1+ goals
78%
Cavese 2+ goals
44%
Cavese 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Budoni (draw refunded)
27%
Cavese (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budoni at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 47 matches

Cavese away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budoni attack 0.94 + Cavese defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Cavese attack 1.65 + Budoni defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Budoni scores more
20%
level
26%
Cavese scores more
54%

Cavese at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cavese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Budoni 1 – 2 Cavese

Cavese beat Budoni 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Budoni.