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Budoni vs Albalonga — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Budoni
Budoni
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Albalonga
Albalonga
4/7/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 30Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Budoni34%
×Draw27%
Albalonga39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budoni
1.21
Albalonga
1.33

Albalonga creates 10% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 51 away

creates per match

Budoni
0.94
Albalonga
1.29

allows per match

Budoni
1.38
Albalonga
1.47

finishing

Budoni+0.00on par
Albalonga+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budoni ↓

Albalonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Budoni or draw
61%
Budoni or Albalonga
73%
Draw or Albalonga
66%

Winning margin

Budoni wins by 2+
14%
Albalonga wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Budoni 1+ goals
70%
Budoni 2+ goals
34%
Budoni 3+ goals
12%
Albalonga 1+ goals
74%
Albalonga 2+ goals
38%
Albalonga 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Budoni (draw refunded)
46%
Albalonga (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budoni at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 47 matches

Albalonga away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budoni attack 0.94 + Albalonga defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Albalonga attack 1.29 + Budoni defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Budoni scores more
34%
level
27%
Albalonga scores more
39%

Albalonga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Albalonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budoni vs Albalonga

Budoni beat Albalonga 3-0 in Serie D - Girone G on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Budoni.