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Budissa Bautzen vs VfL Halle — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VfL Halle
VfL Halle
3/9/2025Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 20Stadion Müllerwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Budissa Bautzen48%
×Draw22%
VfL Halle30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budissa Bautzen
1.93
VfL Halle
1.50

Budissa Bautzen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 81 away

creates per match

Budissa Bautzen
2.10
VfL Halle
1.62

allows per match

Budissa Bautzen
1.39
VfL Halle
1.75

finishing

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par
VfL Halle+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budissa Bautzen ↓

VfL Halle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Budissa Bautzen or draw
70%
Budissa Bautzen or VfL Halle
78%
Draw or VfL Halle
52%

Winning margin

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
27%
VfL Halle wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
85%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
57%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
30%
VfL Halle 1+ goals
78%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
44%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
61%
VfL Halle (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budissa Bautzen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 77 matches

VfL Halle away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budissa Bautzen attack 2.10 + VfL Halle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

VfL Halle attack 1.62 + Budissa Bautzen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Budissa Bautzen scores more
48%
level
22%
VfL Halle scores more
30%

Budissa Bautzen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Budissa Bautzen 0–0 VfL Halle

Budissa Bautzen and VfL Halle drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Müllerwiese in Bautzen.