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Budissa Bautzen vs Plauen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Plauen
Plauen
5/18/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28Stadion Müllerwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Budissa Bautzen38%
×Draw23%
Plauen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budissa Bautzen
1.61
Plauen
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 68 away

creates per match

Budissa Bautzen
2.10
Plauen
1.84

allows per match

Budissa Bautzen
1.39
Plauen
1.13

finishing

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par
Plauen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budissa Bautzen ↓

Plauen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Budissa Bautzen or draw
62%
Budissa Bautzen or Plauen
77%
Draw or Plauen
62%

Winning margin

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
19%
Plauen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
80%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
48%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
22%
Plauen 1+ goals
80%
Plauen 2+ goals
48%
Plauen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
50%
Plauen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budissa Bautzen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 77 matches

Plauen away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budissa Bautzen attack 2.10 + Plauen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.61

Plauen attack 1.84 + Budissa Bautzen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Budissa Bautzen scores more
38%
level
23%
Plauen scores more
38%

Budissa Bautzen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Budissa Bautzen 2–2 Plauen

Budissa Bautzen and Plauen drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Müllerwiese in Bautzen.