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Budissa Bautzen vs Motor Marienberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Motor Marienberg
Motor Marienberg
8/26/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 4Stadion Müllerwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Budissa Bautzen74%
×Draw15%
Motor Marienberg12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budissa Bautzen
2.85
Motor Marienberg
1.06

Budissa Bautzen creates 169% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Budissa Bautzen
2.10
Motor Marienberg
0.73

allows per match

Budissa Bautzen
1.39
Motor Marienberg
3.60

finishing

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par
Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budissa Bautzen ↓

Motor Marienberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Budissa Bautzen or draw
88%
Budissa Bautzen or Motor Marienberg
85%
Draw or Motor Marienberg
26%

Winning margin

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
53%
Motor Marienberg wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
94%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
77%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
53%
Motor Marienberg 1+ goals
65%
Motor Marienberg 2+ goals
29%
Motor Marienberg 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
86%
Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budissa Bautzen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 77 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budissa Bautzen attack 2.10 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.85

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + Budissa Bautzen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Budissa Bautzen scores more
74%
level
15%
Motor Marienberg scores more
12%

Budissa Bautzen at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budissa Bautzen vs Motor Marienberg

Budissa Bautzen beat Motor Marienberg 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Müllerwiese in Bautzen.