Büderich 1–1 TVD Velbert: Result & Stats

Büderich

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

TVD Velbert

3/16/2025

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 23Sportplatz Am Eisenbrand Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Büderich47%

×Draw22%

TVD Velbert32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BüderichExpected goals in this matchTVD Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.64

Büderich

2.01

TVD Velbert

1.64

Büderich creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 72 away

1.96

creates per match

1.38

1.90

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Büderich

1.96

TVD Velbert

1.38

allows per match

Büderich

1.90

TVD Velbert

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Büderich+0.00on par

TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Büderich ↓

TVD Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Büderich or draw

68%

Büderich or TVD Velbert

78%

Draw or TVD Velbert

53%

Winning margin

Büderich wins by 2+

26%

TVD Velbert wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Büderich 1+ goals

87%

Büderich 2+ goals

59%

Büderich 3+ goals

32%

TVD Velbert 1+ goals

81%

TVD Velbert 2+ goals

49%

TVD Velbert 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Büderich (draw refunded)

59%

TVD Velbert (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Büderich at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.90 · 51 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Büderich attack 1.96 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.01

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Büderich defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Büderich scores more

47%

level

22%

TVD Velbert scores more

32%

Büderich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Büderich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff