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Büderich vs Sonsbeck — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Büderich
Büderich
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sonsbeck
Sonsbeck
8/17/2025Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 1Bezirkssportanlage Am Eisenbrand Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Büderich46%
×Draw22%
Sonsbeck32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Büderich
1.94
Sonsbeck
1.59

Büderich creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 71 away

creates per match

Büderich
1.96
Sonsbeck
1.28

allows per match

Büderich
1.90
Sonsbeck
1.93

finishing

Büderich+0.00on par
Sonsbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Büderich ↓

Sonsbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Büderich or draw
68%
Büderich or Sonsbeck
78%
Draw or Sonsbeck
54%

Winning margin

Büderich wins by 2+
26%
Sonsbeck wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Büderich 1+ goals
86%
Büderich 2+ goals
58%
Büderich 3+ goals
30%
Sonsbeck 1+ goals
80%
Sonsbeck 2+ goals
47%
Sonsbeck 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Büderich (draw refunded)
59%
Sonsbeck (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Büderich at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.90 · 51 matches

Sonsbeck away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.93 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Büderich attack 1.96 + Sonsbeck defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sonsbeck attack 1.28 + Büderich defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Büderich scores more
46%
level
22%
Sonsbeck scores more
32%

Büderich at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Büderich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Büderich 1–3 Sonsbeck

Sonsbeck beat Büderich 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Am Eisenbrand Platz 4 in Meerbusch.