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Büderich vs SF Hamborn — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Büderich
Büderich
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
8/13/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 1Sportplatz Büderich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Büderich49%
×Draw20%
SF Hamborn30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Büderich
2.27
SF Hamborn
1.76

Büderich creates 29% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 37 away

creates per match

Büderich
1.96
SF Hamborn
1.62

allows per match

Büderich
1.90
SF Hamborn
2.59

finishing

Büderich+0.00on par
SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Büderich ↓

SF Hamborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Büderich or draw
70%
Büderich or SF Hamborn
80%
Draw or SF Hamborn
51%

Winning margin

Büderich wins by 2+
29%
SF Hamborn wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Büderich 1+ goals
90%
Büderich 2+ goals
66%
Büderich 3+ goals
39%
SF Hamborn 1+ goals
83%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
52%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Büderich (draw refunded)
62%
SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Büderich at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.90 · 51 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Büderich attack 1.96 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.27

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + Büderich defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Büderich scores more
49%
level
20%
SF Hamborn scores more
30%

Büderich at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Büderich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Büderich 2–1 SF Hamborn

Büderich beat SF Hamborn 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Büderich in Meerbusch.