Budapest Honved 1–0 Vasas: Result & Stats

Budapest Honved

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vasas

N. Keresztes 82'

11/30/2024

League #272 · Round 15Bozsik Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Budapest Honved49%

×Draw24%

Vasas27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Budapest HonvedExpected goals in this matchVasas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.22

Budapest Honved

1.72

Vasas

1.22

Budapest Honved creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

1.11

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Budapest Honved

2.00

Vasas

1.33

allows per match

Budapest Honved

1.11

Vasas

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budapest Honved+0.00on par

Vasas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budapest Honved ↓

Vasas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Budapest Honved or draw

73%

Budapest Honved or Vasas

76%

Draw or Vasas

51%

Winning margin

Budapest Honved wins by 2+

26%

Vasas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Budapest Honved 1+ goals

82%

Budapest Honved 2+ goals

51%

Budapest Honved 3+ goals

25%

Vasas 1+ goals

70%

Vasas 2+ goals

34%

Vasas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Budapest Honved (draw refunded)

64%

Vasas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budapest Honved at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Vasas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budapest Honved attack 2.00 + Vasas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Vasas attack 1.33 + Budapest Honved defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Budapest Honved scores more

49%

level

24%

Vasas scores more

27%

Budapest Honved at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Budapest Honved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

C. Ene

32'

J. Bodnár← P. Mamusits

60'

B. Németh← B. Kapornai

61'

N. Keresztes← D. Holman

71'

73'

82'

87'

90+3'

A. Sigér← B. Kesztyűs

90'

I. Pekár← S. Ihrig-Farkas

90'

T. Csilus← Z. Medgyes

Budapest

Vasas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Z. Laczkó

61'▲N. Keresztes←▼D. Holman

90+3'▲A. Sigér←▼B. Kesztyűs

90'▲I. Pekár←▼S. Ihrig-Farkas

90'▲T. Csilus←▼Z. Medgyes

Budapest Honved substitutes

KeresztesSigérPekárCsilusLőrinczyFarkasNyitraiDúzsÁtrokVernesKulbachukSzamosi

Manager: A. Pintér

32'▲J. Bodnár←▼P. Mamusits

60'▲B. Németh←▼B. Kapornai

71'▲B. Rácz←▼M. Tóth

Vasas substitutes

BodnárNémethRáczGirsikPintérBaráthMolnárDeutschJovaÓdorVidaHidi

League #272: Budapest Honved 1–0 Vasas

Budapest Honved beat Vasas 1-0 in League #272 on November 30, 2024.

Goals: N. Keresztes (82').

The match was played at Bozsik Aréna in Budapest.

Budapest Honved vs Vasas — League #272 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #272: Budapest Honved 1–0 Vasas