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Budapest Honved vs Uta Arad — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Budapest Honved
Budapest Honved
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bozsik Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Budapest Honved42%
×Draw25%
Uta Arad33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budapest Honved
1.50
Uta Arad
1.29

Budapest Honved creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Budapest Honved
2.00
Uta Arad
1.44

allows per match

Budapest Honved
1.15
Uta Arad
1.00

finishing

Budapest Honved+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budapest Honved ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Budapest Honved or draw
67%
Budapest Honved or Uta Arad
75%
Draw or Uta Arad
58%

Winning margin

Budapest Honved wins by 2+
21%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Budapest Honved 1+ goals
78%
Budapest Honved 2+ goals
44%
Budapest Honved 3+ goals
19%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
72%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
37%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Budapest Honved (draw refunded)
56%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budapest Honved at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budapest Honved attack 2.00 + Uta Arad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Uta Arad attack 1.44 + Budapest Honved defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Budapest Honved scores more
42%
level
25%
Uta Arad scores more
33%

Budapest Honved at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Budapest Honved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Budapest Honved 3–0 Uta Arad

Budapest Honved beat Uta Arad 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Bozsik Aréna in Budapest.