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Budapest Honved vs Sereď — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Budapest Honved
Budapest Honved
FT
1 – 1
Sereď
Sereď
7/7/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Budapest Honved57%
×Draw22%
Sereď22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budapest Honved
2.00
Sereď
1.15

Budapest Honved creates 74% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Budapest Honved
2.00
Sereď
1.14

allows per match

Budapest Honved
1.15
Sereď
2.00

finishing

Budapest Honved+0.00on par
Sereď+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budapest Honved ↓

Sereď →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Budapest Honved or draw
78%
Budapest Honved or Sereď
78%
Draw or Sereď
43%

Winning margin

Budapest Honved wins by 2+
34%
Sereď wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Budapest Honved 1+ goals
86%
Budapest Honved 2+ goals
59%
Budapest Honved 3+ goals
32%
Sereď 1+ goals
68%
Sereď 2+ goals
32%
Sereď 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Budapest Honved (draw refunded)
73%
Sereď (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budapest Honved at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Sereď away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budapest Honved attack 2.00 + Sereď defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sereď attack 1.14 + Budapest Honved defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Budapest Honved scores more
57%
level
22%
Sereď scores more
22%

Budapest Honved at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Budapest Honved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Budapest Honved 1–1 Sereď

Budapest Honved and Sereď drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 7, 2021.

The match was played at Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ in Budapest.