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Budaörs vs Puskás II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Budaörs
Budaörs
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Puskás II
Puskás II
9/21/2025NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 8Árok utcai pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Budaörs40%
×Draw23%
Puskás II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budaörs
1.73
Puskás II
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Budaörs
2.29
Puskás II
1.60

allows per match

Budaörs
1.67
Puskás II
1.18

finishing

Budaörs+0.00on par
Puskás II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budaörs ↓

Puskás II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Budaörs or draw
63%
Budaörs or Puskás II
77%
Draw or Puskás II
60%

Winning margin

Budaörs wins by 2+
21%
Puskás II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Budaörs 1+ goals
82%
Budaörs 2+ goals
52%
Budaörs 3+ goals
25%
Puskás II 1+ goals
81%
Puskás II 2+ goals
49%
Puskás II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Budaörs (draw refunded)
52%
Puskás II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budaörs at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

Puskás II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budaörs attack 2.29 + Puskás II defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.73

Puskás II attack 1.60 + Budaörs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Budaörs scores more
40%
level
23%
Puskás II scores more
37%

Budaörs at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Budaörs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Budaörs 0–2 Puskás II

Puskás II beat Budaörs 2-0 in NB III - Northwest on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Árok utcai pálya in Budaörs.