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Buckie Thistle vs Civil Service Strollers — FA Cup 2019

Buckie Thistle
Buckie Thistle
FT
4 – 1
Civil Service Strollers
Civil Service Strollers
9/21/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundVictoria Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Buckie Thistle49%
×Draw20%
Civil Service Strollers31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buckie Thistle
2.30
Civil Service Strollers
1.83

Buckie Thistle creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Buckie Thistle
2.60
Civil Service Strollers
1.86

allows per match

Buckie Thistle
1.80
Civil Service Strollers
2.00

finishing

Buckie Thistle+0.00on par
Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buckie Thistle ↓

Civil Service Strollers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Buckie Thistle or draw
69%
Buckie Thistle or Civil Service Strollers
80%
Draw or Civil Service Strollers
51%

Winning margin

Buckie Thistle wins by 2+
29%
Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Buckie Thistle 1+ goals
90%
Buckie Thistle 2+ goals
67%
Buckie Thistle 3+ goals
40%
Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals
84%
Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals
54%
Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)
61%
Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buckie Thistle at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Civil Service Strollers away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buckie Thistle attack 2.60 + Civil Service Strollers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Civil Service Strollers attack 1.86 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Buckie Thistle scores more
49%
level
20%
Civil Service Strollers scores more
31%

Buckie Thistle at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Buckie Thistle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buckie Thistle vs Civil Service Strollers

Buckie Thistle beat Civil Service Strollers 4-1 in FA Cup on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Victoria Park in Buckie.