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Buckie Thistle vs Carluke Rovers — FA Cup 2019

Buckie Thistle
Buckie Thistle
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Carluke Rovers
Carluke Rovers
Unknown 45'
9/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundVictoria Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Buckie Thistle34%
×Draw22%
Carluke Rovers44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buckie Thistle
1.64
Carluke Rovers
1.90

Carluke Rovers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Buckie Thistle
2.60
Carluke Rovers
2.00

allows per match

Buckie Thistle
1.80
Carluke Rovers
0.67

finishing

Buckie Thistle+0.00on par
Carluke Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buckie Thistle ↓

Carluke Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Buckie Thistle or draw
56%
Buckie Thistle or Carluke Rovers
78%
Draw or Carluke Rovers
66%

Winning margin

Buckie Thistle wins by 2+
16%
Carluke Rovers wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Buckie Thistle 1+ goals
81%
Buckie Thistle 2+ goals
49%
Buckie Thistle 3+ goals
23%
Carluke Rovers 1+ goals
85%
Carluke Rovers 2+ goals
56%
Carluke Rovers 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)
43%
Carluke Rovers (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buckie Thistle at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Carluke Rovers away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buckie Thistle attack 2.60 + Carluke Rovers defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Carluke Rovers attack 2.00 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Buckie Thistle scores more
34%
level
22%
Carluke Rovers scores more
44%

Carluke Rovers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carluke Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Buckie Thistle 2–1 Carluke Rovers

Buckie Thistle beat Carluke Rovers 2-1 in FA Cup on September 28, 2024.

Goals: ? (45').

The match was played at Victoria Park in Buckie.