Buckie Thistle 1–3 BSC Glasgow: Result & Stats

Buckie Thistle

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

BSC Glasgow

10/22/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundVictoria Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Buckie Thistle39%

×Draw20%

BSC Glasgow41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buckie ThistleExpected goals in this matchBSC Glasgow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

2.12

Buckie Thistle

2.08

BSC Glasgow

2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.60

creates per match

2.43

1.80

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Buckie Thistle

2.60

BSC Glasgow

2.43

allows per match

Buckie Thistle

1.80

BSC Glasgow

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

BSC Glasgow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buckie Thistle ↓

BSC Glasgow →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Buckie Thistle or draw

59%

Buckie Thistle or BSC Glasgow

80%

Draw or BSC Glasgow

61%

Winning margin

Buckie Thistle wins by 2+

21%

BSC Glasgow wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Buckie Thistle 1+ goals

87%

Buckie Thistle 2+ goals

61%

Buckie Thistle 3+ goals

34%

BSC Glasgow 1+ goals

88%

BSC Glasgow 2+ goals

62%

BSC Glasgow 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)

49%

BSC Glasgow (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Buckie Thistle at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

BSC Glasgow away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Buckie Thistle attack 2.60 + BSC Glasgow defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.08

BSC Glasgow attack 2.43 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Buckie Thistle scores more

39%

level

20%

BSC Glasgow scores more

41%

BSC Glasgow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BSC Glasgow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff