Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC — FA Cup 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Bucheon FC 199552%
Jeju United FC23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bucheon FC 1995 creates 63% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bucheon FC 1995 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bucheon FC 1995 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches
Jeju United FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.88 + Jeju United FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60
Jeju United FC attack 0.83 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Bucheon FC 1995 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Bucheon FC 1995 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsBucheon FC 1995 host Jeju United FC on Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 10:30. The match is part of the FA Cup 2019/2020 season.
FA Cup: Bucheon FC 1995 1–0 Jeju United FC
Bucheon FC 1995 beat Jeju United FC 1-0 in FA Cup on April 16, 2025.
Goals: Lee Eui-Hyeong (85').
The match was played at Bucheon Stadium in Bucheon.