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Buchbach vs Türkgücü-Ataspor — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Buchbach
Buchbach
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Türkgücü-Ataspor
Türkgücü-Ataspor
3/8/2024Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 24SMR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Buchbach43%
×Draw24%
Türkgücü-Ataspor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buchbach
1.66
Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.43

Buchbach creates 16% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 47 away

creates per match

Buchbach
1.71
Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.40

allows per match

Buchbach
1.46
Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.60

finishing

Buchbach+0.00on par
Türkgücü-Ataspor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buchbach ↓

Türkgücü-Ataspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Buchbach or draw
67%
Buchbach or Türkgücü-Ataspor
76%
Draw or Türkgücü-Ataspor
57%

Winning margin

Buchbach wins by 2+
22%
Türkgücü-Ataspor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Buchbach 1+ goals
81%
Buchbach 2+ goals
49%
Buchbach 3+ goals
23%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 1+ goals
76%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 2+ goals
42%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Buchbach (draw refunded)
56%
Türkgücü-Ataspor (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buchbach at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.46 · 87 matches

Türkgücü-Ataspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buchbach attack 1.71 + Türkgücü-Ataspor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Türkgücü-Ataspor attack 1.40 + Buchbach defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Buchbach scores more
43%
level
24%
Türkgücü-Ataspor scores more
33%

Buchbach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Buchbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Buchbach 1–0 Türkgücü-Ataspor

Buchbach beat Türkgücü-Ataspor 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at SMR-Arena in Buchbach.