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Buchbach vs SpVgg Unterhaching — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Buchbach
Buchbach
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SpVgg Unterhaching
SpVgg Unterhaching
S. Ammari 9'
A. Breuer 44'
9/19/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 9SMR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Buchbach32%
×Draw23%
SpVgg Unterhaching45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buchbach
1.44
SpVgg Unterhaching
1.75

SpVgg Unterhaching creates 22% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 55 away

creates per match

Buchbach
1.71
SpVgg Unterhaching
2.02

allows per match

Buchbach
1.47
SpVgg Unterhaching
1.18

finishing

Buchbach+0.00on par
SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buchbach ↓

SpVgg Unterhaching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Buchbach or draw
55%
Buchbach or SpVgg Unterhaching
77%
Draw or SpVgg Unterhaching
68%

Winning margin

Buchbach wins by 2+
14%
SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Buchbach 1+ goals
76%
Buchbach 2+ goals
42%
Buchbach 3+ goals
18%
SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals
83%
SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals
52%
SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Buchbach (draw refunded)
41%
SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buchbach at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.47 · 85 matches

SpVgg Unterhaching away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.18 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buchbach attack 1.71 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 2.02 + Buchbach defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Buchbach scores more
32%
level
23%
SpVgg Unterhaching scores more
45%

SpVgg Unterhaching at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SpVgg Unterhaching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
S. Ammari
44'
A. Breuer
Buchbach
SpVgg
A. Petrović
Manager: A. Petrović
V. Matvienko
Manager: V. Matvienko

Regionalliga - Bayern: Buchbach 1–1 SpVgg Unterhaching

Buchbach and SpVgg Unterhaching drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 19, 2025.

Goals: S. Ammari (9'), A. Breuer (44').

The match was played at SMR-Arena in Buchbach.