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Buchbach vs Illertissen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Buchbach
Buchbach
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Illertissen
Illertissen
D. Gerstmayer 74', 53'
M. Hingerl 45'
4/17/2026Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 29SMR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Buchbach41%
×Draw24%
Illertissen35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buchbach
1.65
Illertissen
1.50

Buchbach creates 10% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 96 away

creates per match

Buchbach
1.70
Illertissen
1.52

allows per match

Buchbach
1.49
Illertissen
1.59

finishing

Buchbach+0.00on par
Illertissen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buchbach ↓

Illertissen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Buchbach or draw
65%
Buchbach or Illertissen
76%
Draw or Illertissen
59%

Winning margin

Buchbach wins by 2+
21%
Illertissen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Buchbach 1+ goals
81%
Buchbach 2+ goals
49%
Buchbach 3+ goals
23%
Illertissen 1+ goals
78%
Illertissen 2+ goals
44%
Illertissen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Buchbach (draw refunded)
54%
Illertissen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buchbach at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Illertissen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buchbach attack 1.70 + Illertissen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Illertissen attack 1.52 + Buchbach defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Buchbach scores more
41%
level
24%
Illertissen scores more
35%

Buchbach at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Buchbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
M. Hingerl
53'
D. Gerstmayer
74'
D. Gerstmayer
Buchbach
Illertissen
A. Petrović
Manager: A. Petrović
Holger Bachthaler
Manager: Holger Bachthaler

Regionalliga - Bayern: Buchbach 0–3 Illertissen

Illertissen beat Buchbach 3-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 17, 2026.

Goals: M. Hingerl (45'), D. Gerstmayer (53', 74').

The match was played at SMR-Arena in Buchbach.