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Buchbach vs Garching — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Buchbach
Buchbach
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Garching
Garching
10/11/2019Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 15SMR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Buchbach57%
×Draw20%
Garching23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buchbach
2.27
Garching
1.40

Buchbach creates 62% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 12 away

creates per match

Buchbach
1.71
Garching
1.33

allows per match

Buchbach
1.46
Garching
2.83

finishing

Buchbach+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buchbach ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Buchbach or draw
77%
Buchbach or Garching
80%
Draw or Garching
43%

Winning margin

Buchbach wins by 2+
35%
Garching wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Buchbach 1+ goals
90%
Buchbach 2+ goals
66%
Buchbach 3+ goals
39%
Garching 1+ goals
75%
Garching 2+ goals
41%
Garching 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Buchbach (draw refunded)
71%
Garching (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buchbach at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.46 · 87 matches

Garching away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buchbach attack 1.71 + Garching defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.27

Garching attack 1.33 + Buchbach defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Buchbach scores more
57%
level
20%
Garching scores more
23%

Buchbach at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Buchbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Buchbach 1–1 Garching

Buchbach and Garching drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on October 11, 2019.

The match was played at SMR-Arena in Buchbach.