Bucaspor 1928 vs Sivas Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Bucaspor 192842%
Sivas Belediyespor31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bucaspor 1928 creates 23% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bucaspor 1928 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bucaspor 1928 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches
Sivas Belediyespor away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bucaspor 1928 attack 0.60 + Sivas Belediyespor defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.36
Sivas Belediyespor attack 0.63 + Bucaspor 1928 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Bucaspor 1928 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Bucaspor 1928 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bucaspor 1928 host Sivas Belediyespor on Tuesday, 25 September 2018 at 13:30. The match is part of the Türkiye Kupası 2018/2019 season.
Bucaspor 1928 0 – 1 Sivas Belediyespor
Sivas Belediyespor beat Bucaspor 1928 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2018.
Goals: E. Bedir (78').
The match was played at Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadı in Tire.