Bucaspor 1928 2–2 Nazilli Spor: Result & Stats

Bucaspor 1928

AET

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nazilli Spor

9/11/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundBuca İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bucaspor 192843%

×Draw25%

Nazilli Spor32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bucaspor 1928Expected goals in this matchNazilli Spor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.30

Bucaspor 1928

1.55

Nazilli Spor

1.30

Bucaspor 1928 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

0.60

creates per match

1.00

1.60

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Bucaspor 1928

0.60

Nazilli Spor

1.00

allows per match

Bucaspor 1928

1.60

Nazilli Spor

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucaspor 1928+0.00on par

Nazilli Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaspor 1928 ↓

Nazilli Spor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bucaspor 1928 or draw

68%

Bucaspor 1928 or Nazilli Spor

75%

Draw or Nazilli Spor

57%

Winning margin

Bucaspor 1928 wins by 2+

22%

Nazilli Spor wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bucaspor 1928 1+ goals

79%

Bucaspor 1928 2+ goals

46%

Bucaspor 1928 3+ goals

20%

Nazilli Spor 1+ goals

73%

Nazilli Spor 2+ goals

37%

Nazilli Spor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bucaspor 1928 (draw refunded)

57%

Nazilli Spor (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaspor 1928 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Nazilli Spor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaspor 1928 attack 0.60 + Nazilli Spor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nazilli Spor attack 1.00 + Bucaspor 1928 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bucaspor 1928 scores more

43%

level

25%

Nazilli Spor scores more

32%

Bucaspor 1928 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bucaspor 1928 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff