Bucaspor 1928 0–2 İzmir Çoruhlu FK: Result & Stats

Bucaspor 1928

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

9/2/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundYeni Buca Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bucaspor 192841%

×Draw29%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bucaspor 1928Expected goals in this matchİzmir Çoruhlu FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.00

Bucaspor 1928

1.20

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

1.00

Bucaspor 1928 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.60

creates per match

0.40

1.60

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Bucaspor 1928

0.60

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

0.40

allows per match

Bucaspor 1928

1.60

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucaspor 1928+0.00on par

İzmir Çoruhlu FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaspor 1928 ↓

İzmir Çoruhlu FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bucaspor 1928 or draw

69%

Bucaspor 1928 or İzmir Çoruhlu FK

71%

Draw or İzmir Çoruhlu FK

59%

Winning margin

Bucaspor 1928 wins by 2+

17%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bucaspor 1928 1+ goals

70%

Bucaspor 1928 2+ goals

34%

Bucaspor 1928 3+ goals

12%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK 1+ goals

63%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK 2+ goals

26%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bucaspor 1928 (draw refunded)

57%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaspor 1928 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

İzmir Çoruhlu FK away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaspor 1928 attack 0.60 + İzmir Çoruhlu FK defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

İzmir Çoruhlu FK attack 0.40 + Bucaspor 1928 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bucaspor 1928 scores more

41%

level

29%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK scores more

31%

Bucaspor 1928 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bucaspor 1928 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff