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Bucaspor 1928 vs Artvin Hopaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bucaspor 1928
Bucaspor 1928
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Artvin Hopaspor
Artvin Hopaspor
10/19/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundYeni Buca Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bucaspor 192849%
×Draw27%
Artvin Hopaspor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaspor 1928
1.43
Artvin Hopaspor
0.93

Bucaspor 1928 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bucaspor 1928
0.60
Artvin Hopaspor
0.25

allows per match

Bucaspor 1928
1.60
Artvin Hopaspor
2.25

finishing

Bucaspor 1928+0.00on par
Artvin Hopaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaspor 1928 ↓

Artvin Hopaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bucaspor 1928 or draw
75%
Bucaspor 1928 or Artvin Hopaspor
73%
Draw or Artvin Hopaspor
51%

Winning margin

Bucaspor 1928 wins by 2+
24%
Artvin Hopaspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bucaspor 1928 1+ goals
76%
Bucaspor 1928 2+ goals
42%
Bucaspor 1928 3+ goals
17%
Artvin Hopaspor 1+ goals
61%
Artvin Hopaspor 2+ goals
24%
Artvin Hopaspor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bucaspor 1928 (draw refunded)
66%
Artvin Hopaspor (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaspor 1928 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Artvin Hopaspor away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaspor 1928 attack 0.60 + Artvin Hopaspor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Artvin Hopaspor attack 0.25 + Bucaspor 1928 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bucaspor 1928 scores more
49%
level
27%
Artvin Hopaspor scores more
25%

Bucaspor 1928 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bucaspor 1928 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bucaspor 1928 vs Artvin Hopaspor

Bucaspor 1928 beat Artvin Hopaspor 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Yeni Buca Stadı in İzmir.