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Bucaramanga vs Valledupar — Copa Colombia 2019

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Valledupar
Valledupar
3/21/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Group Stage - 3Estadio Alfonso López (Bucaramanga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bucaramanga68%
×Draw20%
Valledupar12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
2.02
Valledupar
0.72

Bucaramanga creates 181% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
2.05
Valledupar
0.50

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.95
Valledupar
2.00

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.00on par
Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
88%
Bucaramanga or Valledupar
80%
Draw or Valledupar
32%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
42%
Valledupar wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
87%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
60%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
33%
Valledupar 1+ goals
51%
Valledupar 2+ goals
16%
Valledupar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
85%
Valledupar (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 2.05 + Valledupar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Valledupar attack 0.50 + Bucaramanga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
68%
level
20%
Valledupar scores more
12%

Bucaramanga at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Bucaramanga 5–1 Valledupar

Bucaramanga beat Valledupar 5-1 in Copa Colombia on March 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López (Bucaramanga).