Bucaramanga 0–2 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Millonarios

D. Ruiz 47', 45' (pen)

4/28/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 16Estadio Américo Montanini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Bucaramanga33%

×Draw29%

Millonarios38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.19

Bucaramanga

1.08

Millonarios

1.19

Millonarios creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.15

creates per match

1.45

0.93

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.15

Millonarios

1.45

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.93

Millonarios

1.01

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Bucaramanga-0.29scores less

Millonarios+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

62%

Bucaramanga or Millonarios

71%

Draw or Millonarios

67%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

13%

Millonarios wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

66%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

29%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

10%

Millonarios 1+ goals

70%

Millonarios 2+ goals

33%

Millonarios 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

46%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 7 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.15 + Millonarios defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Millonarios attack 1.45 + Bucaramanga defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

33%

level

29%

Millonarios scores more

38%

Millonarios at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

D. Ruiz

Millonarios · M

8.9

Match Events

3'

11'

15'

32'

32'

36'

45'

D. RuizPenalty

47'

D. Ruiz

53'

D. Chavez← L. Flores

53'

J. Mena← C. Romana

53'

Jhon Vasquez← F. Castaneda

55'

Aldair Gutiérrez

64'

S. Giordana← L. Marimon

65'

M. S. Jimenez← A. Gutierrez

65'

A. Andrade← S. Cardenas

67'

Jorge Arias

71'

Diego ChávezRed card cancelled

72'

Diego Chávez

82'

A. Zarate← L. Pons

82'

D. Catano← N. Villarreal

82'

J. Valencia← K. Palacios

90+9'

Santiago Jiménez

90+4'

H. Palacios← D. Ruiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaMillonarios

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots7

5Corners1

15Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots7

5On Target3

7Off Target3

3Blocked1

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

443Total Passes297

370Accurate Passes225

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls15

5Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1