Bucaramanga 0–0 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Millonarios

5/22/2024

Primera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bucaramanga43%

×Draw29%

Millonarios28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.94

Bucaramanga

1.23

Millonarios

0.94

Bucaramanga creates 31% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.29

creates per match

1.16

0.72

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.29

Millonarios

1.16

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.72

Millonarios

1.16

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more

Millonarios+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

72%

Bucaramanga or Millonarios

71%

Draw or Millonarios

57%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

19%

Millonarios wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

71%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

35%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

13%

Millonarios 1+ goals

61%

Millonarios 2+ goals

24%

Millonarios 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

60%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Millonarios attack 1.16 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

43%

level

29%

Millonarios scores more

28%

Bucaramanga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Quintana

Bucaramanga · G

8.0

Match Events

10'

Larry Vásquez

40'

Jorge Arias

45+1'

Leonardo Flores

45+5'

Aldair GutiérrezPenalty cancelled

45+6'

58'

63'

67'

68'

J. Córdoba← J. Micolta

68'

A. Zárate← L. Flores

77'

S. Jiménez← A. Gutiérrez

77'

E. Rodríguez← J. Carvajal

80'

Fabián Sambueza

84'

Emerson Rodríguez

86'

J. Mosquera← F. Hinestroza

86'

M. Martínez← D. Mosquera

88'

Daniel Giraldo

90+3'

Santiago Jiménez

90+1'

Kevin Andres Cuesta Rodriguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaMillonarios

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots8

4Corners5

18Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots8

4On Target6

5Off Target2

2Blocked0

8Inside Box4

3Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

355Total Passes408

272Accurate Passes323

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls12

4Yellow Cards6

1Offsides2