Bucaramanga 0–1 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jaguares

P. Rojas 24'

8/10/2021

Primera A · Clausura - 4Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bucaramanga52%

×Draw29%

Jaguares20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.70

Bucaramanga

1.33

Jaguares

0.70

Bucaramanga creates 90% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

0.68

0.72

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.29

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.72

Jaguares

1.36

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

80%

Bucaramanga or Jaguares

71%

Draw or Jaguares

48%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

25%

Jaguares wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

74%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

38%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

15%

Jaguares 1+ goals

50%

Jaguares 2+ goals

16%

Jaguares 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

72%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

52%

level

29%

Jaguares scores more

20%

Bucaramanga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Mina

Jaguares · G

8.3

Match Events

18'

Y. Anchico← L. Chiquillo

24'

P. Rojas↳ E. Sosa

31'

45+3'

63'

63'

65'

68'

E. Quiñónes← Á. Meléndez

68'

A. Quintana← S. Montoya

70'

Michel Acosta

71'

Pablo Mina

71'

J. Pérez← J. Barragán

71'

J. Sinisterra← J. Lloreda

76'

Brayan Fernandez

82'

J. Hernández← C. Blanco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaJaguares

Overview

66%Possession34%

26Total Shots6

5Corners1

15Fouls7

Shots

26Total Shots6

5On Target1

11Off Target5

10Blocked0

16Inside Box2

10Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

531Total Passes282

441Accurate Passes185

83%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls7

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs Jaguares

Jaguares beat Bucaramanga 1-0 in Primera A on August 10, 2021.

Goals: P. Rojas (24').

Bucaramanga controlled possession (66%) and registered 26 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López in Bucaramanga.

Bucaramanga vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs Jaguares