Bucaramanga 2–1 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jaguares

M. Rangel 63', 12' (pen)

Rafhael Lucas 35' (pen)

9/21/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bucaramanga52%

×Draw29%

Jaguares20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.70

Bucaramanga

1.33

Jaguares

0.70

Bucaramanga creates 90% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

0.68

0.72

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.29

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.72

Jaguares

1.36

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

80%

Bucaramanga or Jaguares

71%

Draw or Jaguares

48%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

25%

Jaguares wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

74%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

38%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

15%

Jaguares 1+ goals

50%

Jaguares 2+ goals

16%

Jaguares 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

72%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

52%

level

29%

Jaguares scores more

20%

Bucaramanga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Rangel

Bucaramanga · F

8.1

Match Events

10'

Ramón Córdoba

12'

M. RangelPenalty

35'

Rafhael LucasPenalty

37'

Federico Pintos

37'

Elvis Gonzalez

62'

J. Caballero← G. Gómez

63'

Y. Asprilla← S. Romero

63'

M. Rangel↳ J. Pérez

66'

Johan Caballero

71'

J. Vogliotti← Rafhael Lucas

77'

84'

85'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaJaguares

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots13

4Corners4

10Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots13

3On Target5

4Off Target5

3Blocked3

4Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

370Total Passes510

300Accurate Passes438

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2