Bucaramanga 0–0 Internacional de Bogota

Bucaramanga

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

5/11/2022

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bucaramanga59%

×Draw23%

Internacional de Bogota17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.81

Bucaramanga

1.74

Internacional de Bogota

0.81

Bucaramanga creates 115% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

2.05

creates per match

0.67

0.95

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Bucaramanga

2.05

Internacional de Bogota

0.67

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.95

Internacional de Bogota

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

83%

Bucaramanga or Internacional de Bogota

77%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

41%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

34%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

82%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

52%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

25%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

56%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

19%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

78%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 2.05 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.74

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.67 + Bucaramanga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

59%

level

23%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

17%

Bucaramanga at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff