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Bucaramanga vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
10/29/2019Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 20Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bucaramanga48%
×Draw28%
Internacional de Bogota24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
1.35
Internacional de Bogota
0.87

Bucaramanga creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
1.15
Internacional de Bogota
0.81

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.93
Internacional de Bogota
1.56

finishing

Bucaramanga-0.29scores less
Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
76%
Bucaramanga or Internacional de Bogota
72%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
52%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
23%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
74%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
39%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
15%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
58%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
22%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
66%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 7 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.15 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Bucaramanga defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
48%
level
28%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
24%

Bucaramanga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Bucaramanga 2–2 Internacional de Bogota

Bucaramanga and Internacional de Bogota drew 2-2 in Primera A on October 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López in Bucaramanga.