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Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
Preview
19:00
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
9/5/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 9
Big match
43%
Bucaramanga
model favours
43%31%27%

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
68%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bucaramanga43%
×Draw31%
Independiente Medellin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
1.14
Independiente Medellin
0.84

Bucaramanga creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
1.29
Independiente Medellin
0.97

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.72
Independiente Medellin
0.98

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more
Independiente Medellin+0.63scores more

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
73%
Bucaramanga or Independiente Medellin
69%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
57%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
18%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
68%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
32%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
11%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
57%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
21%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
61%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Independiente Medellin attack 0.97 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
43%
level
31%
Independiente Medellin scores more
27%

Bucaramanga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bucaramanga score first in only 19% of matches
  • Independiente Medellin have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Style contrast — Bucaramanga play Defensively solid, Independiente Medellin Attack-heavy

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bucaramanga
Defensively solid
Independiente Medellin
Attack-heavy
51%Possession53%
79%Pass accuracy80%
12.6Shots14.1
1.10xGBiggest gap1.23
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BucaramangaIndependiente Medellin

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Bucaramanga
0
Draws
7
Independiente Medellin
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 60%
2–11–30–32–02–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bucaramanga
LLLWL
Medellin
WDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bucaramanga host Independiente Medellin

September 5, 2026: Bucaramanga take on Independiente Medellin in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.