Bucaramanga 1–2 Independiente Medellin

Bucaramanga

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente Medellin

D. Chávez 40'

D. Cambindo 82'

E. Cetré 59'

4/16/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bucaramanga43%

×Draw31%

Independiente Medellin27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.84

Bucaramanga

1.14

Independiente Medellin

0.84

Bucaramanga creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.29

creates per match

0.97

0.72

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.29

Independiente Medellin

0.97

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.72

Independiente Medellin

0.98

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more

Independiente Medellin+0.63scores more

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

73%

Bucaramanga or Independiente Medellin

69%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

57%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

18%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

68%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

32%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

11%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

57%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

21%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

61%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Independiente Medellin attack 0.97 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

43%

level

31%

Independiente Medellin scores more

27%

Bucaramanga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

V. Mejía

Bucaramanga · M

7.9

Match Events

1'

14'

18'

40'

46'

D. Quiñónes← J. Cabezas

46'

E. Cetré← F. Pardo

50'

Diego Chavez

54'

Gonzalo Lencina

54'

Gonzalo LencinaCard upgrade

59'

E. Cetré

64'

D. Loaiza← D. Torres

64'

A. Ricaurte← J. Alvarado

66'

A. Zárate← D. Chávez

70'

Andrés Ricaurte

72'

Victor Mejia

72'

E. Batalla← M. Monsalve

73'

Déinner Quiñones

75'

J. Marcelin← D. Gómez

82'

D. Cambindo

88'

Y. Moreno← H. Borja

88'

J. Mena← J. Reina

90+5'

Luis Vásquez

90+3'

David Loaiza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaIndependiente

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots11

8Corners2

10Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots11

4On Target5

6Off Target3

7Blocked3

5Inside Box5

12Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

361Total Passes346

304Accurate Passes300

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls18

3Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2