Bucaramanga 2–2 Independiente Medellin

Bucaramanga

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente Medellin

J. Pineda 48'

S. Cárdenas 31' (pen)

J. Murillo 57'

A. Ricaurte 11'

10/7/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bucaramanga43%

×Draw31%

Independiente Medellin27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.84

Bucaramanga

1.14

Independiente Medellin

0.84

Bucaramanga creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.29

creates per match

0.97

0.72

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.29

Independiente Medellin

0.97

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.72

Independiente Medellin

0.98

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more

Independiente Medellin+0.63scores more

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

73%

Bucaramanga or Independiente Medellin

69%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

57%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

18%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

68%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

32%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

11%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

57%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

21%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

61%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Independiente Medellin attack 0.97 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

43%

level

31%

Independiente Medellin scores more

27%

Bucaramanga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Cárdenas

Bucaramanga · M

8.0

Match Events

11'

A. Ricaurte↳ D. Moreno

30'

Andres Cadavid

31'

S. CárdenasPenalty

33'

37'

41'

45'

48'

J. Pineda↳ S. Cárdenas

57'

J. Murillo↳ D. Quiñónes

58'

Johan Caballero

64'

C. Quintero← E. Navarro

66'

Alejandro Bernal

66'

E. Mosquera← D. Quiñónes

67'

Jhon Pérez

72'

R. Lemus← J. Pérez

76'

C. Echavarría← J. Cuesta

83'

C. Ibargüen← J. Caballero

84'

D. Herazo← A. Arregui

89'

Elvis Perlaza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaIndependiente

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots11

8Corners6

20Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots11

6On Target4

5Off Target4

5Blocked3

7Inside Box5

9Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

505Total Passes389

428Accurate Passes307

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls17

5Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0