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Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
Preview
23:10
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
11/1/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 17
Big match
39%
Bucaramanga
model favours
39%30%31%

Bucaramanga score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Bucaramanga39%
×Draw30%
Atletico Nacional31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
1.12
Atletico Nacional
0.97

Bucaramanga creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
1.20
Atletico Nacional
1.12

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.82
Atletico Nacional
1.04

finishing

Bucaramanga-0.20scores less
Atletico Nacional+0.11scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
69%
Bucaramanga or Atletico Nacional
70%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
61%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
67%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
31%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
10%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
62%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
55%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.82 · 9 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.20 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Atletico Nacional attack 1.12 + Bucaramanga defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
39%
level
30%
Atletico Nacional scores more
31%

Bucaramanga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches
  • Style contrast — Bucaramanga play Defensively solid, Atletico Nacional Possession-dominant
  • Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bucaramanga
Defensively solid
Atletico Nacional
Possession-dominant
52%Possession56%
80%Pass accuracy83%
12.2Shots15.2
1.02xGBiggest gap1.49
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BucaramangaAtletico Nacional

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Bucaramanga
2
Draws
5
Atletico Nacional
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
0–22–01–00–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bucaramanga
LLLWL
Nacional
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bucaramanga face Atletico Nacional (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Bucaramanga hosting Atletico Nacional. Match starts November 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.