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Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
3/29/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Américo Montanini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bucaramanga37%
×Draw30%
Atletico Nacional33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
1.11
Atletico Nacional
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
1.15
Atletico Nacional
1.14

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.93
Atletico Nacional
1.08

finishing

Bucaramanga-0.29scores less
Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
67%
Bucaramanga or Atletico Nacional
70%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
63%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
15%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
67%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
30%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
10%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
64%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
28%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
53%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 7 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.08 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.15 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Atletico Nacional attack 1.14 + Bucaramanga defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
37%
level
30%
Atletico Nacional scores more
33%

Bucaramanga at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional

Bucaramanga beat Atletico Nacional 2-0 in Primera A on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Américo Montanini in Bucaramanga.