Bucaramanga 1–1 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Nacional

G. Lencina 48'

T. Ángel 45+1' (pen)

2/20/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 5Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bucaramanga39%

×Draw30%

Atletico Nacional31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.96

Bucaramanga

1.12

Atletico Nacional

0.96

Bucaramanga creates 17% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

0.76

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.20

Atletico Nacional

1.17

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.76

Atletico Nacional

1.04

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.35scores more

Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

69%

Bucaramanga or Atletico Nacional

70%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

61%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

16%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

67%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

31%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

10%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

62%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

25%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

56%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.76 · 11 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.20 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Atletico Nacional attack 1.17 + Bucaramanga defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

39%

level

30%

Atletico Nacional scores more

31%

Bucaramanga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Reina

Bucaramanga · M

7.5

Match Events

13'

Gonzalo Lencina

33'

B. Palacios← Jhon Duque

45+1'

T. ÁngelPenalty

46'

J. Becerra← V. Mejía

46'

T. Gutiérrez← J. Maza

48'

G. Lencina↳ G. Torres

50'

Nicolás Marotta

52'

Teófilo Gutiérrez

52'

Jader

65'

Tomás ÁngelGoal confirmed

80'

81'

89'

89'

90+3'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaAtletico

Overview

61%Possession39%

8Total Shots16

8Corners8

7Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots16

3On Target5

2Off Target7

3Blocked4

4Inside Box7

4Outside Box9

Passing

61%Possession39%

432Total Passes281

354Accurate Passes214

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1