Bucaramanga vs America de Cali

Bucaramanga

Preview

23:10

America de Cali

10/17/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 15

Big match

44%

Bucaramanga

model favours

44%28%28%

Bucaramanga score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

59%

under 2.5 goals

46%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

Bucaramanga44%

×Draw28%

America de Cali28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.99

Bucaramanga

1.32

America de Cali

0.99

Bucaramanga creates 33% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 190 away

1.38

creates per match

1.04

0.95

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.38

America de Cali

1.04

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.95

America de Cali

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

72%

Bucaramanga or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

56%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

20%

America de Cali wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

73%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

38%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

15%

America de Cali 1+ goals

63%

America de Cali 2+ goals

26%

America de Cali 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

61%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 170 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 190 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.38 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Bucaramanga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

44%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

28%

Bucaramanga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

America de Cali score first in only 27% of matches
73% of America de Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
America de Cali outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Bucaramanga

Defensively solid

America de Cali

Defensively solid

52%Possession52%

80%Pass accuracy80%

12.2Shots13.9

1.02xGBiggest gap1.19

BucaramangaAmerica de Cali

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1

Bucaramanga

4

Draws

5

America de Cali

Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 30%

0–21–20–00–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Bucaramanga

LLLWL

Cali

LWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff