America de Cali 2–0 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bucaramanga

9/3/2025

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

America de Cali50%

×Draw28%

Bucaramanga22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.80

America de Cali

1.36

Bucaramanga

0.80

America de Cali creates 70% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

1.43

creates per match

0.90

0.71

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

America de Cali

1.43

Bucaramanga

0.90

allows per match

America de Cali

0.71

Bucaramanga

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

78%

America de Cali or Bucaramanga

72%

Draw or Bucaramanga

50%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

24%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

74%

America de Cali 2+ goals

39%

America de Cali 3+ goals

16%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

55%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

19%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

69%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.43 + Bucaramanga defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bucaramanga attack 0.90 + America de Cali defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

America de Cali scores more

50%

level

28%

Bucaramanga scores more

22%

America de Cali at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff