Bucaramanga 0–4 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

America de Cali

J. Micolta Piedahita 85'

M. S. Jimenez 78' (OG)

D. Vergara 57'

P. Gomez 23'

2/3/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 2Estadio Américo Montanini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bucaramanga46%

×Draw30%

America de Cali24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.78

Bucaramanga

1.22

America de Cali

0.78

Bucaramanga creates 56% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

0.79

0.76

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.20

America de Cali

0.79

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.76

America de Cali

1.24

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.35scores more

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

76%

Bucaramanga or America de Cali

70%

Draw or America de Cali

54%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

21%

America de Cali wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

70%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

34%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

12%

America de Cali 1+ goals

54%

America de Cali 2+ goals

18%

America de Cali 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

66%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.76 · 11 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.20 + America de Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

America de Cali attack 0.79 + Bucaramanga defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

46%

level

30%

America de Cali scores more

24%

Bucaramanga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

S. Silva

America de Cali · G

8.3

Match Events

23'

30'

45'

45+1'

46'

57'

59'

J. Blanco← Jhon Vasquez

60'

K. Londono← A. Zarate

71'

A. Ponce← L. Vasquez

71'

F. Leys← J. Cavadia

71'

J. Micolta Piedahita← J. Lucumi

78'

M. S. JimenezOwn goal

84'

J. Romero← P. Gomez

85'

J. Micolta Piedahita

90+3'

D. Hernandez← D. Vergara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaAmerica

Overview

64%Possession36%

20Total Shots12

8Corners0

12Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots12

7On Target6

9Off Target4

4Blocked2

11Inside Box6

9Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

439Total Passes258

346Accurate Passes185

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2