Bucaramanga 2–1 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

America de Cali

G. Lencina 54', 19'

L. Sánchez 15'

5/18/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 20Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bucaramanga46%

×Draw30%

America de Cali24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.78

Bucaramanga

1.22

America de Cali

0.78

Bucaramanga creates 56% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

0.79

0.76

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.20

America de Cali

0.79

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.76

America de Cali

1.24

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.35scores more

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

76%

Bucaramanga or America de Cali

70%

Draw or America de Cali

54%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

21%

America de Cali wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

70%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

34%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

12%

America de Cali 1+ goals

54%

America de Cali 2+ goals

18%

America de Cali 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

66%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.76 · 11 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.20 + America de Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

America de Cali attack 0.79 + Bucaramanga defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

46%

level

30%

America de Cali scores more

24%

Bucaramanga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

G. Lencina

Bucaramanga · F

8.7

Match Events

7'

Jhoiner Asprilla

12'

J. Álvarez← L. Quintero

13'

Nicolás Marotta

15'

L. Sánchez

19'

G. Lencina↳ D. Chávez

46'

C. Flórez← C. Subero

54'

G. Lencina↳ V. Mejía

55'

N. Sánchez← A. Zárate

59'

59'

59'

59'

63'

J. Nazarith← D. Contreras

64'

S. Jérez← J. Maza

64'

F. Suárez← P. Bravo

75'

K. Andrade← K. Angulo

75'

G. Carvajal← L. Paz

83'

A. Galeano← G. Lencina

83'

Ó. Alcocer← D. Chávez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaAmerica

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots19

5Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots19

7On Target3

5Off Target8

0Blocked8

5Inside Box10

7Outside Box9

Passing

52%Possession48%

456Total Passes415

372Accurate Passes324

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1