Bucaramanga 0–2 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

America de Cali

C. Sierra 90+5'

M. Torres 13'

9/1/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bucaramanga49%

×Draw29%

America de Cali22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.75

Bucaramanga

1.29

America de Cali

0.75

Bucaramanga creates 72% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

1.29

creates per match

0.78

0.72

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.29

America de Cali

0.78

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.72

America de Cali

1.30

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more

America de Cali-0.03on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

78%

Bucaramanga or America de Cali

71%

Draw or America de Cali

51%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

23%

America de Cali wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

72%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

37%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

14%

America de Cali 1+ goals

53%

America de Cali 2+ goals

17%

America de Cali 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

69%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + America de Cali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

America de Cali attack 0.78 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

49%

level

29%

America de Cali scores more

22%

Bucaramanga at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Torres

America de Cali · D

8.6

Match Events

-5'

Gustavo Torres

13'

M. Torres↳ C. Sierra

28'

J. Montaño← C. Subero

31'

Eber Moreno

46'

Daniel Quiñones← E. Moreno

46'

D. Pino← J. Portilla

57'

J. Caballero← B. Téliz

57'

J. Marcelin← G. Torres

59'

Deinner Quiñónes← J. Pérez

65'

D. Hernández← D. Lemos

73'

Esneyder Mena

76'

E. Mosquera← E. Mena

77'

B. Garcés← V. Mejía

77'

F. Rodríguez← C. Blanco

90+5'

C. Sierra↳ M. Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaAmerica

Overview

67%Possession33%

15Total Shots9

6Corners3

6Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots9

4On Target4

7Off Target5

4Blocked0

5Inside Box5

10Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

559Total Passes277

468Accurate Passes187

84%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1