Bucaramanga 2–3 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

America de Cali

S. Cárdenas 90+2', 22'

C. Dájome 69'

D. Arboleda 60'

A. Bernal 57'

9/8/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 9Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bucaramanga49%

×Draw29%

America de Cali22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.75

Bucaramanga

1.29

America de Cali

0.75

Bucaramanga creates 72% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

1.29

creates per match

0.78

0.72

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.29

America de Cali

0.78

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.72

America de Cali

1.30

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more

America de Cali-0.03on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

78%

Bucaramanga or America de Cali

71%

Draw or America de Cali

51%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

23%

America de Cali wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

72%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

37%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

14%

America de Cali 1+ goals

53%

America de Cali 2+ goals

17%

America de Cali 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

69%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + America de Cali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

America de Cali attack 0.78 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

49%

level

29%

America de Cali scores more

22%

Bucaramanga at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Cárdenas

Bucaramanga · M

8.3

Match Events

22'

S. Cárdenas↳ M. Rangel

37'

Larry Vásquez

42'

Marlon Torres

57'

A. Bernal↳ J. Pérez

60'

D. Arboleda↳ C. Dájome

63'

Jhonatan Pérez

66'

Avimiled Rivas

66'

C. Quintero← J. Pérez

66'

J. Mosquera← J. Cuero

67'

Marvin Vallecilla

67'

S. Romero← J. Caballero

69'

C. Dájome

70'

C. Lizarazo← A. Rivas

75'

78'

85'

89'

90+2'

S. Cárdenas↳ M. Rangel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaAmerica

Overview

37%Possession63%

11Total Shots18

5Corners8

19Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots18

5On Target7

6Off Target8

0Blocked3

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box14

Passing

37%Possession63%

298Total Passes495

233Accurate Passes432

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs America de Cali

America de Cali beat Bucaramanga 3-2 in Primera A on September 8, 2018.

Goals: S. Cárdenas (22', 90+2'), A. Bernal (57'), D. Arboleda (60'), C. Dájome (69').

America de Cali controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López in Bucaramanga.

Bucaramanga vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs America de Cali