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Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
Preview
23:00
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
8/25/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 7
Big match
45%
Bucaramanga
model favours
45%28%27%

Bucaramanga score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

Bucaramanga45%
×Draw28%
Águilas Doradas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
1.34
Águilas Doradas
0.96

Bucaramanga creates 40% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 170 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
1.38
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.95
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
73%
Bucaramanga or Águilas Doradas
72%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
55%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
21%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
74%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
39%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
15%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
62%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
25%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
63%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 170 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.38 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Bucaramanga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
45%
level
28%
Águilas Doradas scores more
27%

Bucaramanga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Águilas Doradas win just 31% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • Bucaramanga outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bucaramanga
Defensively solid
Águilas Doradas
Balanced
53%Possession49%
80%Pass accuracy77%
12.8ShotsBiggest gap11.8
1.14xG1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BucaramangaÁguilas Doradas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Bucaramanga
2
Draws
4
Águilas Doradas
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
1–24–01–03–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bucaramanga
LLLWL
Doradas
DDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bucaramanga face Águilas Doradas (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Bucaramanga hosting Águilas Doradas. Match starts August 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.